Climate change in Zambia and Uganda (2021)

Climate change and girls' education in Zambia and Uganda


Here is just a little bit of research I conducted to investigate: 1) the impact of climate change in East Africa (specifically, Zambia and Uganda), and 2) strategies that can be taken by organisations (specifically, schools and smaller charities and/or NGOs operating in these countries) to adapt and mitigate against the impact of climate change on their own operation and the communities in which they operate. Please note, I do not pretend to be an expert in climate change or environmental sciences. This piece is only meant to inspire discussion around these issues.


Key terminology

  • Climate Change is a term used to describe long-term changes in the state of the climate either due to natural processes or human activity (Rigaud et al., 2018a, p. vii). The effects of climate change can include increased climate variability and an increase in climate-related natural disasters. 
  • In this context of climate change, mitigation refers to strategies used to prevent climate change; and adaptation is used to refer to short- and long-term strategies used by groups vulnerable to the effects of climate change (or groups located in regions that are at greater climate risk) to adapt their livelihood practices, infrastructure, knowledge, etc to buffer against the effects of climate change (i.e., build resilience). 
  • Vulnerability is a term used to describe an individual, group, community, or region’s susceptibility to being adversely affected by the effects of climate change (i.e., climate variability and extreme weather). This includes their ability to cope with the effects (e.g., impact on agricultural output). 

Summary


East Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change.  Research suggests that East Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change, in part due to its geographical location and several defining demographic traits, including population size and density; the percentage of the population living in rural regions; the percentage of the population living in poverty, and the percentage of the population that relies on agricultural output. 

  • In Uganda and Zambia, climate change is likely to contribute to an increase in extreme and unpredictable weather patterns (McGuigan et al., 2002) like unpredictable and uncertain (e.g., premature, delayed, prolonged or failed) rainfall,[1] rising temperatures, landslides, flooding (due to increased sea levels) and more prolonged and more frequent droughts,[2] (Twongyirwe et al., 2019) and exacerbate existing climate hazards (Branch, 2018). This impact varies depending on the region. Climate change is largely unpredictable – perhaps in large part due to a lack of weather-pattern-specific data available and a reliance on prediction models in East Africa. However, more severe changes in climate (i.e., in temperature and rainfall) will start to be felt in Uganda and Zambia in the next 5-40 years and as such it is important that PEAS, as an organisation, begins preparing for this and building up awareness and resilience.[i]
  • There is research to suggest that climate change (and climate-related disasters and shocks) are presently and predicted to have a greater impact on girls, women, rural-dwellers, and marginalised groups (see p. 5).
  • Climate change has a greater impact on rural dwellers (as rural communities depend on forestry for one thing), people living with HIV/AID, children, indigenous and marginalised groups, like the Batwa, the poor, and rural girls and women.
  • Climate change has a greater impact on girls and women. According to the Equal Measures 2019 EM2030 SDG Gender Index, ‘not only are girls and women more likely to die in climate disasters, but climate vulnerability and shocks can have differential impacts on their schooling, health, and livelihoods, particularly in rural areas’ (p. 41). [3]
 
There are a number of strategies schools can use to mitigate against and adapt the climate change and its negative effects (here)
  • Co-curricular activities, i.e., entrepreneur and livelihood clubs; and tree planting on the school compound and in the local community.
  • Prioritising gender parity in access for girls to quality education. 
  • Land planning and short-term and long-term strategies to adapt to scenarios, namely, droughts, flooding, extreme heat exposure, heavy rain, and heavy wind. 
  • General mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate shocks, like water shortages (namely, water collection).

The current and expected impact of climate change
 
Climate change is already negatively impacting East Africa and Uganda, affecting agricultural output in particular, and this is projected to worsen over the next 20 years  
  •  East Africa, especially its semi-arid, sub-tropical, and equatorial regions (McGuigan et al., 2002), is especially vulnerable to variable, extreme weather and climate-related natural disasters (in part due to compound and intersecting stresses or drivers). These drivers or stresses exacerbate the impact. Moreover, these drivers of vulnerability (‘capacity to recover’) include and are determined by poverty, population growth, adult illiteracy rates, the strength of institutions; insufficient monitoring and observation systems; settlements in vulnerable areas; lack of early warning systems; lack of capacity building and lack of funds to invest.[iii]
  • The climate in Uganda is generally equatorial with a hot climate and two rain seasons – from March to June and from August to November. The weather is typically varied. However, in recent years, there has already been an increase in natural disasters and unpredictable weather patterns[4] (for example, droughts in North East Uganda[5](p. xii). There was a drought in most of East Africa from 2016-2017, especially in North East Uganda,[6] and in 2017 there was a drought in northern Uganda.  80% of Uganda’s 47, 123, 531 million population live in rural areas, relying heavily on agriculture and rainfall (for agriculture). According to Ssentongo et al. (2018) for the past 34 years there has been a 12% decrease in average rainfall; especially pronounced in central and western Uganda’s agricultural regions (Ssentongo et al., 2018). Climate change models have predicted that (1) the average temperature in Uganda will increase by up to 1.5oc in the next 20 years, and (2) rainfall will increase by 10 – 20% (but will decrease in ‘the semi-arid cattle corridor.’ This increase in temperatures in the semi-arid areas, especially in the southwest, will leave the Ugandan economy ‘particularly vulnerable to climate change given its heavy reliance on its natural resource base.’[7][iv]
  • These rising average temperatures and trends in reduced rainfall could contribute to an unstable macro economy due to increases in food prices, uncertain livelihood opportunities, severe hunger, migration [8] (Hoffman, 2020; e.g., in Western Uganda, see World Bank, 2018a), disease outbreaks and an increase in communicable diseases, like malaria and cholera, and crop-related diseases, namely, cassava mosaic disease).[9][10] Here are just a few examples. 
  • In Kabale rising temperatures have encouraged an increase in mosquitoes (and, in turn, malaria); and limited crop production and reduced groundwater levels cause many communal boreholes to dry up in Tororo. The community struggles to mobilise assets in support of local primary education.’[v] Floods have washed buildings away in Osukuru.
  • In Kampala, there has been an increase in climate-induced internal displacement. -- note that ‘in 2004 [head count poverty] rose to 38% apparently due to increased frequency of climate variability and conflicts’ (p. xii).[11]
  • In the Gulu district, parents were unable to contribute to the school feeding programme due to poor harvest in the last In the Rift Valley, Kenya, increasingly scarce resources have led to growing violence between pastoralists and farmers. Women spend hours fetching water, digging fields, and cooking for their families.’[12]
  • Gulu and Bundibugyo have seen droughts, and unpredictable rainfall patterns and Kotido has experienced this and flash floods.[13] 



Zambia is similarly affected by climate change in terms of flooding; however, drought seems to be a bigger issue in Uganda
  • Zambia has and is predicated to experience similar climate-related natural disaster events: it has a Vulnerability Rank (2015) of 34 and a Climate Risk Index Rank (2016) of 143 (Irish Aid, 2016, p. 4). Models also predict similar decreases in agricultural productivity, increases in flooding, diseases (e.g., water-borne diseases), high temperatures, droughts, shorter rainy seasons, and reduced rainfall in certain regions[14][vii] resulting in reduced water supply (Funder et al., 2013; Hamududu & Ngoma, 2019; Thurlow et al., 2009; Nabalamba, 2011). For example, according to Irish Aid (2016) ‘the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.2 to 3.4°C by the 2060s’ (p. 6).
  • For example, some have suggested that decreases in rainfall and an increase in the average temperature have affected fish catches in Lake Kariba. Put simply, they posit that there has been a decline in certain species of fish because of these climate changes (Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011). However, other authors caution against a link between these climatic changes and the availability of fish, suggesting that this decline in fish is perhaps, more a result of fishing in the area (Marshall, 2012; Mahere et al., 2014).  
  • Vulnerable groups (namely, women, girls, poorer and more rural communities, and marginalised groups) are disproportionately affected by climate variability, as is the case in Uganda (see Impact of climate change in Uganda above). 



The poor and rural communities are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 
  • Climate change has a greater impact on rural dwellers (as rural communities depend on forestry[15]for one thing), people living with HIV/AID (UNEP, 2018), children, and indigenous and marginalised groups, like the Batwa (Lewis, 2000), the poor (McGuigan, 2002) and rural girls and women (Neumayer & Plumper, 2008; Balikoowa et al., 2019; Sellers, 2016; Hara et al., 2019).[viii]
  • The authors argue that poorer communities are more vulnerable to the natural disasters associated with climate change due to less access to resources (e.g., funds to be proactive with risks ‘invest in disaster proof’ infrastructure, services) and a reduced capacity to act (savings to fix damages caused by disasters, place lost livestock, repair houses, food, and other items) or adapt, or as McGuigan (2002) describe ‘low disaster preparedness’ and ‘weaker recovery’ (p. 7). 
  • The Batwa community’s vulnerability lies in a lack of access to capital and land ownership; their forest-dwelling and hunter-gathering lifestyle; national identification cards. They are unable to pay school fees and cannot afford rainwater catchment investments, as household and community roof tanks only benefit those with permanent houses (Satyal, 2020).
  • This includes women and girls who, as caregivers are primarily responsible for agriculture-dependent house chores like food production, and are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks 
  • A consecutive series of natural disasters can weaken a community or family’s resilience and ability to cope.  The burden falls on rural women and girls in rural communities who are expected to fulfill an important role in agriculture and natural resource management but with greater financial and resource constraints. For example, women own only 16 percent of registered land.[16]
  • In sub-Saharan Africa women are generally expected to perform domestic tasks, such as food production, gathering firewood, and collecting water from boreholes; they are also more likely to be ‘primary caregivers responsible for feeding families.’[17]
  • Women in Uganda are responsible for ‘70-80 percent of agriculture production (2004) and for nutrition and food security at household level,’ despite the fact that they are ‘responsible for just 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions’ (James, 2020). This dependence on agriculture, what Meyiwa et al. (2014) might call ‘their precarious environmental livelihoods,’ leaves them particularly vulnerable to climate change: namely, as water becomes scarcer, women may be burdened with extra collection responsibilities.[ix]
  • Post-natural disasters, with an increased strain on families, the girl child may sacrifice school attendance and learning time to help with household chores (like collecting water from boreholes due to water scarcity[18]) and they may have to drop out of school as the family’s resources are redirected from school fees to more immediate needs (Bjorkman-Nyqvist, 2013; Talk Education Partnership, 2017). Student exhaustion and fatigue (resulting from this added strain) may contribute to student absenteeism and dropouts (Talk Education Partnership, 2017). 
  • There is also research to suggest that climate change exacerbates risks of gender-based violence (arising perhaps from the decrease in male earnings) and leaves girls and women vulnerable to sexual exploitation (as they are more likely to have to walk greater distances to collect water and gather firewood due to increases in resource scarcity) and early marriage (Women Deliver, 2021; World Bank, 2017a; Qasim, 2019; Agostino, 2010).[19]


Conclusion

Historically unusual changes in the climate and temperature predictability in various parts of the world are having a detrimental effect on the lives and livelihoods of individuals across the globe. Ultimately, the strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change are context dependent and will likely vary from region to region (i.e., weather patterns, community practices and vulnerabilities, and a region's ecology). However, these findings do seem to point to three things: 1) that there are some communities that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change or unpredictable weather changes than others (again, due to any number of factors). 2) these findings highlight the need for organisations to reflect on the potential impact (if any) their activities and practices can have on the communities in which they operate and with which they work. And 3) with the increasing focus being placed on climate change and environmental awareness in the media and politics and elsewhere in the last decade, more research is needed to understand the role, (if any) girls' education has in improving a community's ability to survive climate-related disasters and their community's vulnerability to such changes. 


References and Footnotes 

·       In Kampala (with a population of 1.5 million, 60% of which is classified as the urban poor), ‘poor resource efficiency in Uganda, carbon emitting businesses, rapid urbanization and poor planning have contributed to chronic congestion, destruction of local natural ecosystems causing environmental degradation, pollution and poor air quality.’[ii]  

·       The Kampala Capital City Authority (2019) reports that ‘Kampala contributes about 60% of the gross domestic product of the entire country,’[ii] which suggests that disruptions in output in Kampala (caused by climate-related disasters) are likely to have some sort of impact on the Ugandan economy.  

Zambia’s contribution to climate change

Agriculture, waste, energy, and Land use Change and Forestry (LUCF) are primary contributors to greenhouse gases emissions in Zambia (Irish Aid, 2017, p. 7). [ii]Charcoal and firewood consumption and unsustainable agricultural methods are some of the principal causes of high deforestation (Zambia’s National Policy on Climate Change, 2016).[ii] For more on Zambia’s contribution to climate change, specifically GHG emissions, please see USAID, 2015.[ii]

[iv] According to the World Bank, agriculture accounts for 70% of employment in Uganda, mostly on small farms’[iv] (Markandya, 2016; Lwasa, 2010). These weather changes will likely have (and are already having) a serious impact on agricultural output (McGuigan et al., 2002, p. 8), food security (Mbow et al., 2019; Hepworth & Goulden, 2008), livelihoods, and urban Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) systems[iv] in these rural populations, leading to volatile food supply (due to diminished food production, crop failure, ‘the loss and degradation forests; habitat destruction and degradation[iv]and loss of livestock). There is now evidence that Uganda is experiencing observable shifts in rainfall and temperatures (FEWSNET, 2012; Mubiru et al., 2012; Nsubuga et al., 2014). 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Posts